Key vulnerabilities in the nuclear energy supply chain, and how industrial policy could address them, by Eliot Jobe

There are several key vulnerabilities in the nuclear supply chain, with particular parts of the chain getting bottlenecked. The supply chain structure is as follows:

• Uranium mining.
• Conversion: Yellowcake is converted into Uranium Hexafluoride (enriched with centrifuge technology).
• Enrichment: Must increase the concentration of fissile U-235 to 3-5% (varies by reactor).
• Fuel Fabrication: Must create uranium dioxide power.
• Reactor construction and operation: key vendors are Westinghouse Electric Company, EDF, and Rosatom.
• Spent fuel management and waste. Optional recycling.

The key vulnerabilities in the supply chain often happen during the conversion and enrichment stages. Yellowcake conversion and enrichment are dominated by the Russian entities (ex, Russian conversion services account for 22 percent of total EU demand, EU countries importing 2800 tonnes of uranium in enriched or fuel form). Further exploration of the bottlenecks also shows that only 4 entities in the world have substantial enrichment capacity and market share: Rosatom (Russia), Urenco (UK), CNNC (China), and Urano (France). Two of the three Great Powers are involved, and none of them is the United States.

Industrial policy could help address these vulnerabilities by encouraging new conversion and enrichment capacity in the United States and Europe. Industrial policy levers that could work are direct capital subsidies (like the US’s $2.7 billion enrichment capacity plan) and long-term offtake agreements (DOE plan to guarantee ten year contract with a minimum ordering guarantee of $2 million).

Further questions:

What role could global governance (e.g., IAEA) play in addressing these bottlenecks/risks?

Is there a need for a multilateral planning mechanism for coordination?

References:

Al Habtoor Research Centre. (n.d.). Uranium and the future of global energy.
https://www.habtoorresearch.com/programmes/uranium-future-global-energy/Links to an external site.

American Society of Mechanical Engineers. (2026). Energy Department launches $2.7 billion push to rebuild U.S. uranium enrichment.
https://www.asme.org/government-relations/policy-impact/energy-department-launches-2-7-billion-push-to-rebuild-u-s-uranium-enrichmentLinks to an external site.

European Commission. (n.d.). REPowerEU: Three years on.
https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/markets-and-consumers/actions-and-measures-energy-prices/repowereu-3-years_enLinks to an external site.

Hogan Lovells. (2024). DOE announces $2.7 billion boost to U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain.
https://www.hoganlovells.com/en/publications/doe-announces-27-billion-boost-to-us-nuclear-fuel-supply-chainLinks to an external site.

World Nuclear Association. (n.d.). Uranium enrichment.
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/conversion-enrichment-and-fabrication/uranium-enrichment